Telangana faces uneven monsoon as El Niño clouds July rainfall outlook
HYDERABAD: Telangana has entered July with an uncertain monsoon outlook as a strengthening El Niño raises concerns over rainfall across India. Weather experts expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to reduce some of El Niño‘s impact. However, the chances of a strong IOD remain low, making the rainfall outlook uncertain.
Forecasts show a clear regional divide across Telangana. Northern and eastern districts are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Western and southern districts may continue to see below-normal rainfall. This uneven pattern could affect farming, water availability and rural livelihoods.
Temperatures are also likely to stay above normal across the state throughout July. The extra heat may worsen moisture stress in many areas.
Telangana records 15% rainfall deficit in June
Telangana ended June with a rainfall deficit of nearly 15%. The state received 111.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 131.4 mm. Although the southwest monsoon reached Telangana around June 8, rainfall remained uneven across districts.
Hanamkonda recorded the highest deficit at 70% below normal. Warangal followed with a 63% deficit. Siddipet recorded 53% below-normal rainfall, while Nirmal and Yadadri Bhuvanagiri each reported a 52% deficit.
A few districts received more rainfall than usual. Suryapet led the state with a 39% surplus. Mulugu recorded a 30% surplus, followed by Nalgonda (12%), Nagarkurnool (10%) and Narayanpet (7%).
Hyderabad also recorded below-normal rainfall. The city received 93.3 mm against the normal 112 mm, leaving it with a 17% deficit.
Dry spells may hit kharif crops and reservoirs
Meteorologists warn that a stronger El Niño could increase the gap between rain spells. It may also push up day and night temperatures and reduce soil moisture. These conditions could affect kharif crops during important growth stages.
Some forecasts suggest that parts of central Telangana, including Hyderabad, may still receive near-normal or slightly above-normal rainfall. However, northern and southern districts remain at risk of rainfall deficits of 25% to 30%. Such uneven rainfall could make crop planning and water management more difficult.
Lower rainfall may also reduce inflows into the Krishna and Godavari river basins. Both river systems are vital for irrigation, drinking water and hydropower generation. Weak inflows could lower reservoir storage during the monsoon season.
Government prepares for different rainfall scenarios
State authorities have prepared contingency plans for different monsoon situations. These include delayed rainfall extending into mid-July, late July or even mid-August. Officials have also issued district-specific advice on crop selection, sowing schedules and water management.
Experts say Telangana is better prepared today than in previous decades. Better weather forecasting, improved irrigation, climate-resilient crop varieties and crop diversification have strengthened the state’s preparedness.
Government agencies, including the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, the state agriculture department and district task forces, have increased coordination. They aim to provide timely weather updates and farming advisories.
Experts also stress the need for long-term climate adaptation. They recommend greater investment in water conservation, micro-irrigation, watershed development, crop diversification and climate-smart farming. These measures can help reduce the impact of erratic rainfall in the years ahead.
