Rajaneethi Strategies exit poll matches Jubilee Hills result
HYDERABAD: Rajaneethi Strategies (Rashtram) on Thursday said its exit poll for the Jubilee Hills by-election closely aligned with the final results, including the winning margin of Congress candidate Naveen Yadav.
Firm says estimates for vote share closely mirrored final results
According to the agency, its exit poll projected a 50% vote share for the Congress, while the final count stood at 50.83%. It estimated 39% for the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, which ended at 38.13%; 8% for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which secured 8.76%; and 3% for other candidates, who together polled 2.28%.
The firm said its forecast of an 11% to 12% lead for the Congress translated into a 12.7% margin in the actual result. It had assessed a majority of about 25,000 votes for Naveen Yadav. He eventually won by 24,711 votes.
“This reflects the accuracy, experience and rigour behind our surveys and data analysis,” the agency said.
Agency recounts earlier poll predictions from 2023 elections
The firm also cited previous estimates to underline its record. It said its 2023 Telangana assembly exit poll projected that the Congress would win up to 61 seats; the party secured 64. It predicted 40 seats for the BRS, which went on to win 39.
Similarly, it said its Munugode bypoll forecast had indicated a 4% to 7% lead and a majority between 9,000 and 15,000 votes for the then Telangana Rashtra Samithi. The final outcome recorded a 4.5% lead and a 10,309-vote majority.
States it avoids releasing pre-poll findings to prevent influence
The agency said it conducts pre-poll surveys but does not publish them, noting that releasing such data could influence voter sentiment. It said three rounds of pre-poll surveys in Jubilee Hills showed the BRS’s advantage declining.
The firm added that Congress campaign activity and poll-day management played a key role in the outcome, a trend it said its exit poll captured.
Rajaneethi Strategies said it will continue conducting surveys it described as “credible and reflective of public opinion”. It thanked respondents, staff and supporters for participating in its processes.
