Monsoon deficit widens to 8%; experts warn against delaying preparedness
HYDERABAD: Concerns over the southwest monsoon grew after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported an 8% rainfall deficit across the country since the monsoon reached Kerala on June 4.
India received 46.2 mm of rainfall during this period against the normal 74.3 mm. The IMD said rainfall remained 48% below the Long Period Average (LPA), which is based on 50 years of rainfall data.
Weak monsoon signal continues
Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a scientist at the Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, said current conditions do not suggest a quick recovery.
“At present, the monsoon signal (MISO) does not indicate a strong wet phase across India. As a result, the rainfall deficit is unlikely to disappear within the next one or two weeks,” he said.
He said national rainfall figures often hide large regional differences. Some areas may face long dry spells, while others receive heavy rain in a short period.
“Even if the overall rainfall improves later, the early-season deficit can already affect sowing, soil moisture, groundwater recharge and reservoir levels,” he added.
Forecasts did not fully capture the slowdown
Dr Koll said signs of a weak monsoon onset and slow progress appeared early and experts communicated them in advance. However, forecasters did not fully anticipate the scale and duration of the slowdown.
“Most forecasts expected monsoon activity to strengthen later in the month despite the weak start,” he said.
Asked whether authorities should wait for a clearer forecast before taking action, Dr Koll advised immediate preparation.
“The all-India rainfall figure helps climate monitoring. However, it does not provide enough information for agriculture, drinking water, reservoirs, floods or groundwater management. Authorities should begin preparations now,” he said.
Focus on district-level forecasts
Dr Koll said large differences in rainfall across regions require a more local approach to monsoon planning.
“India needs stronger local forecasts and impact-based advisories. The IMD has gradually expanded its work in this direction,” he said.
He added that district-level and agro-climatic forecasts can help farmers and officials make better decisions. These include sowing schedules, crop choices, irrigation plans, drinking-water management, reservoir operations, flood preparedness and heat-health measures.
