El Nino likely to persist till February 2027, raising concerns over next monsoon
HYDERABAD: The ongoing El Niño event in the central Pacific Ocean has already weakened India’s southwest monsoon. Now, it is expected to continue until February 2027, according to the first El Niño bulletin issued by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (Incois).
Incois said El Niño will likely remain the dominant phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from June 2026 to February 2027. It placed the probability of its persistence at 70–90%. The chance of a return to neutral conditions stands at 10–30%.
Prolonged El Niño raises monsoon concerns
Meteorologists warn that the extended El Niño phase could affect more than the current monsoon season. It may also influence the 2027 monsoon.
“An El Niño stretching into summer is never good news for the monsoon that follows,” said a meteorology expert. “Ocean and weather systems change slowly. The 2027 monsoon could also face risks if conditions persist.”
The expert added that a below-normal monsoon in 2027 cannot be ruled out.
Deep-learning models used for forecast
Incois said it used deep-learning models to predict the Nino 3.4 index. These models can give skilful forecasts up to 15 months in advance.
The bulletin said El Niño will continue to dominate the forecast period. It will also shape ocean conditions across the North Indian Ocean.
Warmer sea surface temperatures are expected. Upper-ocean heat content may rise. Ocean stratification could strengthen. Marine heatwaves may also become more likely.
Impact on fisheries and coasts
The bulletin warned of possible declines in catches of two fish species in the Bay of Bengal during the next fishing season. It also flagged the risk of high wind-sea conditions in parts of the bay.
Warmer waters may trigger extreme weather events. Coastal regions could face erosion, flooding, and storm surges during severe systems.
However, the outlook for the Arabian Sea appears more stable. Incois said the west coast may see calmer seas and longer fair-weather windows despite the El Niño influence.
