El Niño likely during Aug–Sept; Skymet forecasts below-normal monsoon at 94% of LPA
HYDERABAD: India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the development of El Niño expected to weaken precipitation during the second half of the June–September season, private weather forecaster Skymet said.
Skymet projected seasonal rainfall at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a 6% deficit for the four-month monsoon period. The LPA for the season is about 817 mm. The forecast carries an error margin of ±5%.
Rainfall is expected to remain near normal in June at 101% of LPA, but decline to 95% in July. It may weaken further to 92% in August and 89% in September, according to the forecast.
Skymet managing director Jatin Singh said the monsoon would be influenced by the formation of El Niño during the season. “El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño’s return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” he said.
Regional distribution is expected to vary. Eastern and northeastern parts of India are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, while northern, western and central regions may experience below-normal rains. The southern peninsula is expected to record normal rainfall.
Skymet said the core monsoon rainfed zone across central and western India may see inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are likely to receive less-than-normal rain, particularly during August–September. Eastern and northeastern regions are expected to perform better than the rest of the country.
El Niño refers to periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean, which typically affects global weather patterns and weakens the Indian monsoon.
